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Personal web surfing models and an ought-driven tab feed: 3. Existing web surfing models

3. Existing web surfing models

No one has published a model trained on one person's open-web history and used to rank links or tabs for them or an agent. Several neighbouring fields are mature: next-page prediction, session-based recommendation, web-agent benchmarks and personal LLMs. Each covers part of what a personal surfing model needs.

Field Representative work What it gives Why it isn't a personal surfing model
Cognitive models of link choice SNIF-ACT (Fu & Pirolli 2007): picks links by "information scent" relative to a goal. West & Leskovec (WWW 2012): Wikispeedia players jump to a hub, then steer by similarity An interpretable account of why a goal-directed person clicks a link. Usable as features or a baseline Population-level and goal-given; no personal taste
Next-page prediction Markov and PPM models (Gellert 2021); GoWeB on Edge logs; Chrome omnibox ML scoring (Google, 2024) Proof that history predicts the next destination Predicts habit, which is the opposite of "ought"
History to interest profile Chrome Topics API: hostnames to 22 root topics, top 5 per week. Being removed in 2026 A production design for compressing history Deliberately coarse, built for ads
Sequential recommendation GRU4Rec, SASRec, BERT4Rec (replicability study), HSTU (Meta, 1.5T parameters in production), TIGER Architectures for next-item prediction Need a shared catalogue and millions of users. One person's web has an open item space and thousands of events
LLM recommenders TALLRec (works with under 100 labels), LLaRA, USER-LLM (compresses long history to 32 soft tokens), ONCE (GPT infers a profile from news history) The building blocks for an n=1 ranker Trained and evaluated on pooled users
News click data with dwell MIND, EB-NeRD (dwell and scroll depth) Public data for pretraining a ranker or testing label noise News only, other people
Web navigation agents WebShop, Mind2Web, WebArena, WebLINX, Online-Mind2Web The research agent a personal ranker would steer Optimize for finishing tasks, not for taste
Imitating real browsing people OPeRA (2025: 51 real users, about 4 weeks of Amazon logs with in-the-moment rationales and personas); Lu et al. (3,526 users) The closest data and evaluation recipe Exact next action is hard: 12 to 22% accuracy. Rationales help. No per-user model
Personal LLMs and digital twins LaMP, PRISM; Park et al. (1,052 interview-based agents reach 85% of people's own test-retest consistency); PRISM-X (2026: per-user tuning gains small) Evidence that individual imitation works on attitudes and is hard on preferences Built from interviews, chat or writing, not browsing
Personalized web agents PersonalWAB (purchase histories); Persona2Web (2026, synthetic year-long browsing histories) A benchmark shape for "agent conditioned on my history" Persona2Web agents reach at most about 13%. Inferring preferences from implicit history is the hard part, and explicit profiles help most

Two things are worth knowing beyond the table:

The gap has three parts. First, a model of one person's long-term open-web history evaluated as a ranker for an agent. Second, a split between "would click" and "endorse" for a personal tab queue. Third, any shareable per-person model. I tried the wordings personal, single-user, n-of-1, tab recommendation, revisitation and read-later. This looks like a real gap, not a search miss.


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